Too Civilized for Politics

I knew from the very first days of protesting:

It is a case of kill or be killed, at least in the metaphorical sense - under the current leadership dissent has no chance of prevailing, and every single protester not bowing to Khamenei's command could get injured beyond repair or killed.

Particularly after protesters decided to defy the "Supreme Leader" Khamenei's ban on demonstrations in violation of Article 27 in the Iranian Constitutition securing the right to public assembly if it unarmed and not against Islam.

We've heard the threats. We've seen the biker gangs, the religious-political paramility forces of Baseej, striking out and clamping down on protesters.

Right now, on June 26, calls are being made from the Assembly of Experts to punish protesters "savagely, ruthlessly", a call made by Ahmad Khatami, a leading hardline member of the Assembly.

Mousavi and Mohammed Khatami are under house arrest. The whereabouts of Rafsanjani are unknown, but according to banks and intelligence services large funds are being transferred out of Iran by both leaders and opposition.

On Twitter the Sea of Green is struggling to keep protests peaceful, non-violent.

Violence against police, baseeji, in self-defense or retaliation, have already been witnessed on YouTube.

The truth is non-violence, at this point, is only called for out of a remote chance it may shift the power of balance in the three most important political institutions of Iran: The Guardian Council, The Assembly of Experts and the Parliament.

The premise is that Rafsanjani is more or less secretly supporting and lobbying for support for Mir Hossein-Mousavi.

This premise is credible - the current events would be unlikely without the active backing of Iran's second most powerful man.

Non-violence with regards to political impact is moot at this point, both when it comes to the world community and Iran's government.

Those nations who can swayed to take a strong stance against Iran, around the world, are already on the band-wagon.

The Iranian regime: They just don't care.

Another shock to the movement, to Sea of Green, in the days when protests have been decimated by violence and threats, and easily scattered by superior forces:

Michael Jackson died, and the news temporarily blew #iranelection off Trending Topics on Twitter.

This too is testimony of demonstrators, who are likeable and driven by the noblest intentions in the world, but also profoundly uninformed about the nature of politics, modern and arcane.

In this game their lives do not matter, and it should be no surprise "Western media do not care". Media do not care, per definition. Their only interest is paper or page rotation, the good story.

It shouldn't be a surprise that foreign governments do not care much: Their interest are tied up to specific national and geopolitical goals, such as securing Israel, establishing peace in the Middle East, or warding off the prospect of Iranian nukes.

Besides that, do not expect them to act. They will "condemn", and they will "carefully examine human rights violations", but besides words they only have the limited mean of sanctions or the excessive mean of war.

And war, at this point, is a far more gruesome option than systematic state oppression.

So, Iranians are on their own, more or less - in spite of genuine support from millions around the world, in USA, Europe, Russia and Asia alike.

Also, persecution of opposition is a given. Likelihood of arrest, torture and execution is 100%, regardless of foreign protests.

I always knew there would be clamp-downs, round-ups, disappearences, abuse. It is the nature of the beast, the very thing these all too civilized protesters are fighting.

There will be blood. Heads are going to roll.

Did the protesters understand this, when they took to the streets, or were they lured into a political feud, a long-standing by proxy vendetta between two powerful clerics, Khamenei and Rafsanjani?

I think most of them knew, subconsciously, even the most ardent non-violent protesters. It is not like Iranians do not know what awaits them at Evin or in the basement below the Interior Ministry.

But they were compelled to act, as the election fraud was so obvious, so grotesquely conspicious, and they were soon forced to continue, as government sanctions became inevitable in the wake of several brutal and bloody clamp-downs.

Now they are stuck between a rock and a hard place.

Nobody, in this political climate, can condemn them for taking it to the next step: Revolutionary action. Nobody can condemn them, if they fold and try to survive, whatever political consequences the Iranian stand-off may have on their lives.

Either way, it is going to be bloody. Innocent are going to suffer, lives will be snuffed. Bloggers will fall off the grid, heroes disappear, mothers and fathers mourn.

I do NOT mean to incite violence. This is not my battle, so it would be irresponsible. Also, it is never prudent to call for open conflict in a case where you have no possibility of winning.

But you must understand the nature of politics: In politics people are merely pawns, and there is no higher justice, no secret law or principle ensuring the voice of the downtrodden is heard, or the rights of the weaker respected.

You can't suffer or bleed an enemy to death. When you suffer, when you bleed, it means you are dying, not the opponent.

And "the world is watching" means no more than this: They are watching, plain and simple, perhaps expressing their support. But it is symbolic support, just like green balloons are symbols of freedom, not freedom itself.

June 26, 2009

Male Iranian detainee tortured, raped and beaten until his teeth were gone, says he will kill himself

Link goes to The Guardian. Updated July 1 2009